Emerging FX Monthly

A monthly newsletter delivering BMI's pick of FX forecasts for both developed states and emerging markets

Latest Emerging FX Monthly Analysis

Currency Forecast - CAD: Modest Upside Ahead - OCT 2017

The Canadian dollar is due to take a breather following a significant rally versus its US counterpart since mid-2017. However, we see modest further upside over 2018 and 2019 as oil prices continue to head up and Canadian monetary policy tightens more aggressively than is currently anticipated by rate markets.

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Currency Forecast - TWD: Near-Term Weakness; Long-Term Stability - AUG 2015

Despite its strong fundamentals, the TWD is facing downside pressure from the ongoing weakness in competitors' currencies. As such, we see continued weakness in the near term towards TWD32.00/USD. Over the long-term, an undervalued real effective exchange rate, low inflation, and a large current account surplus will lend support to the currency, limiting weakness and providing stability.

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Currency Forecast - SEK: Upside Ahead Despite Negative Rates - MAR 2015

The Swedish central bank's surprising decision in February to cut its policy rate into negative territory and launch quantitative easing has led us to downgrade our forecasts for krona appreciation. Nonetheless, we still see modest krona upside versus the euro over a multi-year horizon, supported by a relatively strong growth outlook and a sizeable current account surplus.

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