Currency Forecast - GBP: Pausing For Breath - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / United Kingdom / Economy
Having briefly hit a multiyear high of USD1.70/GBP on May 6, the British pound has since retraced back to USD1.67/GBP as of June 2. Given that sterling has posted 10% gains against the US dollar...
Currency Forecast - UAH: Bulk Of Adjustment Now Over - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Ukraine / Economy
After a major devaluation to UAH11.9/USD, we believe the bulk of Ukraine's exchange rate adjustment is now behind us. The hryvnia has regained some stability, due owing primarily to the extensive...
Economic Analysis - KES: Depreciation To Replace Range-Trading - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Kenya / Economy
The Kenyan shilling will weaken further over the coming months owing to a combination of seasonal factors and a deteriorating security situation. The currency has tentatively broken through key...
Currency Forecast - Taka To Remain Stable As BB Bolsters Reserves - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Bangladesh / Economy
We expect the Bangladeshi taka to remain fairly stable near its current level of BDT77.65/USD over the coming months, as the Bangladesh Bank (BB) will likely continue to anchor the currency while...
Currency Forecast - KRW: Recent Gains Raise Downside Risks - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / South Korea / Finance
The won has been on a tear since breaking through resistance at KRW1,050/USD, and the trend remains bullish for the currency. However, we are seeing bearish divergence on the relative strength...
Currency Forecast - Leu Resilience To Be Short-Lived - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Romania / Finance
We expect the Romanian leu to continue being one the most resilient currencies in emerging Europe over the next few months (see chart below), despite already gaining 3.5% against the euro so far in...
Currency Forecast - TTD: Sideways Trading Through 2014 - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Trinidad & Tobago / Economy
Having modestly weakened since the beginning of 2014, the heavily managed Trinidadian dollar will find stability in its current trading range of TTD6.38-6.48/USD in the coming months. Indeed, while a recent shortage of US dollars in the domestic foreign exchange market has put depreciatory pressure on the TTD, improving export performance, and our expectation of interest rate hikes during the...
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Currency Forecast - ILS: Gradual Appreciation In 2015 - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Israel / Economy
We reaffirm our neutral short-term view for the Israeli shekel, which we see trading within the ILS3.4000-3.6000/USD range over the rest of 2014. Despite significant upside pressure on the unit...
Currency Forecast - RUB: Tactically Bullish, Strategically Bearish - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Russia / Economy
The rouble broke through three-month technical resistance against the US dollar on May 7, following Russia's reconciliatory rhetoric over growing violence in south-eastern Ukraine. The move signals...
Currency Forecast - AUD: Renewed Weakness Likely - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Australia / Economy
We continue to see the Australian dollar heading lower in a choppy fashion over the coming quarters, and following a 7% rally since the January low, renewed weakness is likely. Expectations of...