Currency Forecast - NOK: Modest Upside Amid Steady Oil And Rates - SEPT 2015
Emerging FX Monthly September 2015 / Norway / Economy
We forecast the Norwegian krone to appreciate slowly over a multi-year horizon from current levels, with oil prices stabilising and the Norwegian central bank refraining from cutting rates furth...
Currency Forecast - BYR: Weakness Ahead In 2016 - SEPT 2015
Emerging FX Monthly September 2015 / Belarus / Economy
We expect some strength in BYR against USD over the remainder of 2015 as oil prices stabilise, but forecast steady depreciation over a longer term time horizon. A weakening Russian rouble and low...
Currency Forecast - UGX: Monetary Tightening Will Not Stop The Slide - SEPT 2015
Emerging FX Monthly September 2015 / Uganda / Economy
A risk-off environment, weak balance of payments dynamics and loose fiscal policy will see the Ugandan shilling continue to slide over the coming months despite an aggressive monetary tightening cycle.
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Currency Forecast - EGP - Slower Pace Of Depreciation Coming - SEPT 2015
Emerging FX Monthly September 2015 / Egypt / Economy
The Egyptian pound will gradually depreciate over the remainder of 2015 and into 2016 as the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)'s willingness and ability to support the unit wanes. A weaker currency will...
Currency Forecast - CAD: More Depreciation From Low Oil Prices And Rate Cut - AUG 2015
Emerging FX Monthly August 2015 / Canada / Economy
The Canadian dollar will remain under selling pressure in the coming months, with additional monetary easing and lower oil prices weighing heavily on the unit. We see scope for only gradual appreci...
Currency Forecast - GBP: Pausing For Breath - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / United Kingdom / Economy
Having briefly hit a multiyear high of USD1.70/GBP on May 6, the British pound has since retraced back to USD1.67/GBP as of June 2. Given that sterling has posted 10% gains against the US dollar...
Currency Forecast - UAH: Bulk Of Adjustment Now Over - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Ukraine / Economy
After a major devaluation to UAH11.9/USD, we believe the bulk of Ukraine's exchange rate adjustment is now behind us. The hryvnia has regained some stability, due owing primarily to the extensive...
Currency Forecast - Taka To Remain Stable As BB Bolsters Reserves - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Bangladesh / Economy
We expect the Bangladeshi taka to remain fairly stable near its current level of BDT77.65/USD over the coming months, as the Bangladesh Bank (BB) will likely continue to anchor the currency while...
Currency Forecast - TTD: Sideways Trading Through 2014 - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Trinidad & Tobago / Economy
Having modestly weakened since the beginning of 2014, the heavily managed Trinidadian dollar will find stability in its current trading range of TTD6.38-6.48/USD in the coming months. Indeed, while a recent shortage of US dollars in the domestic foreign exchange market has put depreciatory pressure on the TTD, improving export performance, and our expectation of interest rate hikes during the...
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Currency Forecast - RUB: Tactically Bullish, Strategically Bearish - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Russia / Economy
The rouble broke through three-month technical resistance against the US dollar on May 7, following Russia's reconciliatory rhetoric over growing violence in south-eastern Ukraine. The move signals...