Currency Forecast - NOK: Modest Upside Amid Steady Oil And Rates - SEPT 2015
Emerging FX Monthly September 2015 / Norway / Economy
We forecast the Norwegian krone to appreciate slowly over a multi-year horizon from current levels, with oil prices stabilising and the Norwegian central bank refraining from cutting rates furth...
Currency Forecast - BYR: Weakness Ahead In 2016 - SEPT 2015
Emerging FX Monthly September 2015 / Belarus / Economy
We expect some strength in BYR against USD over the remainder of 2015 as oil prices stabilise, but forecast steady depreciation over a longer term time horizon. A weakening Russian rouble and low...
Currency Forecast - GBP: Pausing For Breath - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / United Kingdom / Economy
Having briefly hit a multiyear high of USD1.70/GBP on May 6, the British pound has since retraced back to USD1.67/GBP as of June 2. Given that sterling has posted 10% gains against the US dollar...
Currency Forecast - UAH: Bulk Of Adjustment Now Over - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Ukraine / Economy
After a major devaluation to UAH11.9/USD, we believe the bulk of Ukraine's exchange rate adjustment is now behind us. The hryvnia has regained some stability, due owing primarily to the extensive...
Currency Forecast - RUB: Tactically Bullish, Strategically Bearish - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Russia / Economy
The rouble broke through three-month technical resistance against the US dollar on May 7, following Russia's reconciliatory rhetoric over growing violence in south-eastern Ukraine. The move signals...
Currency Forecast - PLN: Tight Trading Range Across 2014 - MAY 2014
Emerging FX Monthly May 2014 / Poland / Economy
Despite growing regional tensions between Ukraine and Russia, volatility in the zloty has remained relatively low, highlighting Poland's strong structural profile and the zloty's reduced exposure...
Currency Forecast - KZT: Following Devaluation, Mild Depreciation - MAY 2014
Emerging FX Monthly May 2014 / Kazakhstan / Economy
The Kazakh tenge will remain within a three KZT trading range on either side of KZT185.00/USD over the next three to six months. Following the surprise devaluation in February, which saw the unit's...
Currency Forecast - RSD: Beyond Short-Term Boost, Moderate Weakness Ahead - MAY 2014
Emerging FX Monthly May 2014 / Serbia / Economy
With the Serbian dinar recently breaking long-term technical resistance, we see a case for further short-term moderate appreciation, with the dinar to strengthen to RSD114.80/EUR over the next few...