Currency Forecast - NOK: Modest Upside Amid Steady Oil And Rates - SEPT 2015
Emerging FX Monthly September 2015 / Norway / Economy
We forecast the Norwegian krone to appreciate slowly over a multi-year horizon from current levels, with oil prices stabilising and the Norwegian central bank refraining from cutting rates furth...
Currency Forecast - BYR: Weakness Ahead In 2016 - SEPT 2015
Emerging FX Monthly September 2015 / Belarus / Economy
We expect some strength in BYR against USD over the remainder of 2015 as oil prices stabilise, but forecast steady depreciation over a longer term time horizon. A weakening Russian rouble and low...
Currency Forecast - Koruna Cap To Remain In Place - SEPT 2015
Emerging FX Monthly September 2015 / Czech Republic / Finance
Despite calls from President Milos Zeman to remove the peg, we expect the CNB to defend it until end-2016.
Currency Forecast - SEK: Upside Ahead Despite Negative Rates - MAR 2015
Emerging FX Monthly March 2015 / Sweden / Finance
The Swedish central bank's surprising decision in February to cut its policy rate into negative territory and launch quantitative easing has led us to downgrade our forecasts for krona appreciation. Nonetheless, we still see modest krona upside versus the euro over a multi-year horizon, supported by a relatively strong growth outlook and a sizeable current account surplus.
READ FULL ARTICLE
Currency Forecast - SEK: Modest Upside Versus Euro - DEC 2014
Emerging FX Monthly December 2014 / Sweden / Economy
The Swedish krona will appreciate modestly versus the euro over the next two years, but depreciate against the US dollar. Although the central bank has adopted a zero interest rate policy due to...
Market Strategy - Modest Depreciation Following Short-Term Gains - DEC 2014
Emerging FX Monthly December 2014 / Serbia / Finance
We expect the Serbian dinar to recoup some of its losses incurred since Q314 as the precautionary credit arrangement with the International Monetary Fund concluded in November anchors investor...
Currency Forecast - GBP: Pausing For Breath - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / United Kingdom / Economy
Having briefly hit a multiyear high of USD1.70/GBP on May 6, the British pound has since retraced back to USD1.67/GBP as of June 2. Given that sterling has posted 10% gains against the US dollar...
Currency Forecast - UAH: Bulk Of Adjustment Now Over - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Ukraine / Economy
After a major devaluation to UAH11.9/USD, we believe the bulk of Ukraine's exchange rate adjustment is now behind us. The hryvnia has regained some stability, due owing primarily to the extensive...
Currency Forecast - Leu Resilience To Be Short-Lived - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Romania / Finance
We expect the Romanian leu to continue being one the most resilient currencies in emerging Europe over the next few months (see chart below), despite already gaining 3.5% against the euro so far in...
Currency Forecast - RUB: Tactically Bullish, Strategically Bearish - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Russia / Economy
The rouble broke through three-month technical resistance against the US dollar on May 7, following Russia's reconciliatory rhetoric over growing violence in south-eastern Ukraine. The move signals...