The Canadian dollar is due to take a breather following a significant rally versus its US counterpart since mid-2017. However, we see modest further upside over 2018 and 2019 as oil prices continue to head up and Canadian monetary policy tightens more aggressively than is currently anticipated by rate markets.
A risk-off environment, weak balance of payments dynamics and loose fiscal policy will see the Ugandan shilling continue to slide over the coming months despite an aggressive monetary tightening cycle.
The Tanzanian shilling is looking weak as withheld funding from international donors has prompted a break through major technical support. Even if the funds are released, we forecast ongoing depreciation against the US dollar.
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