Currency Forecast - TWD: Near-Term Weakness; Long-Term Stability - AUG 2015
Emerging FX Monthly August 2015 / Taiwan / Finance
Despite its strong fundamentals, the TWD is facing downside pressure from the ongoing weakness in competitors' currencies. As such, we see continued weakness in the near term towards TWD32.00/USD. Over the long-term, an undervalued real effective exchange rate, low inflation, and a large current account surplus will lend support to the currency, limiting weakness and providing stability.
READ FULL ARTICLE
Currency Forecast - AUD: Further Weakness Amid Structural Headwinds - AUG 2015
Emerging FX Monthly August 2015 / Australia / Finance
Despite significant weakness already seen, we maintain a fundamentally negative outlook for the Australian dollar over the medium-term. A slowing economy due to an ongoing deterioration in the...
Currency Forecast - KRW: Maintaining Our Neutral Stance - MAR 2015
Emerging FX Monthly March 2015 / South Korea / Finance
We remain neutral on the Korean won against the US dollar. While precarious technical support levels pose heavy downside risks to our view, an undervalued real effective exchange rate, large curren...
Currency Forecast - Taka To Remain Stable As BB Bolsters Reserves - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Bangladesh / Economy
We expect the Bangladeshi taka to remain fairly stable near its current level of BDT77.65/USD over the coming months, as the Bangladesh Bank (BB) will likely continue to anchor the currency while...
Currency Forecast - KRW: Recent Gains Raise Downside Risks - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / South Korea / Finance
The won has been on a tear since breaking through resistance at KRW1,050/USD, and the trend remains bullish for the currency. However, we are seeing bearish divergence on the relative strength...
Currency Forecast - AUD: Renewed Weakness Likely - JUNE 2014
Emerging FX Monthly June 2014 / Australia / Economy
We continue to see the Australian dollar heading lower in a choppy fashion over the coming quarters, and following a 7% rally since the January low, renewed weakness is likely. Expectations of...
Economic Analysis - Peso To Strengthen Amid Improving External Fundamentals - MAY 2014
Emerging FX Monthly May 2014 / Philippines / Economy
We remain technically bullish on the Philippine peso, which has recently broken through resistance convincingly, and looks set to strengthen towards PHP43.50/US$ over the coming months. On the...
Economic Analysis - Rupee Anchored As CBSL Looks To Boost Reserves - MAY 2014
Emerging FX Monthly May 2014 / Sri Lanka / Economy
We expect the Sri Lankan rupee to remain fairly stable against the US dollar over the course of 2014, as the improvement seen in the external accounts for 2013 will likely continue this year, while...
Currency Forecast - IDR: Set For Further Strength - MAY 2014
Emerging FX Monthly May 2014 / Indonesia / Finance
The Indonesian rupiah has recovered strongly following the collective sell off we saw in EM currencies in the latter stages of 2013. While we remain neutral on the currency in the short term, we...
Currency Forecast - JPY: Slight Bullish Bias - MAY 2014
Emerging FX Monthly May 2014 / Japan / Economy
We continue to see the January 2 low as marking the low for the depreciatory cycle, and believe that the bias will be towards yen appreciation over the next several months. A break of JPY101.00/US$...