A risk-off environment, weak balance of payments dynamics and loose fiscal policy will see the Ugandan shilling continue to slide over the coming months despite an aggressive monetary tightening cycle.
The Tanzanian shilling is looking weak as withheld funding from international donors has prompted a break through major technical support. Even if the funds are released, we forecast ongoing depreciation against the US dollar.
We hold a neutral view on the Mauritian rupee over the short term, believing that it will remain fairly stable over the next month or so. Although we forecast an appreciation over the course of the year, the currency has so far struggled to make a determined break through a major resistance line at MUR30.05/USD, breaching it tentatively on three occasions in the past two months only to then...
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